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• Three Republican frontrunners all have double-digit leads over Obama
• President Obama’s job approval hits all-time low, disapproval climbs to all-time high in Tennessee
• Most Tennesseans aware of new voter ID law, but many confused about the details
• Leave lottery-funded college scholarships alone for now, most say
• Governor Haslam has Tennessee’s approval as first year in office draws to a close
• Tennesseans divided on the state legislature’s job performance
• Tennesseans’ dim view of Washington cooperation persists, especially on the possibility of job creation
• Tennesseans: Cut spending and raise taxes – but not taxes on the rich
• Dissatisfaction with national economy and direction high and rising
• Happy with your local public schools? A lot depends on where you live

Downloads:
Detailed report and analysis
Exact question phrasing and sequence
Question-by-question results
Data file (SPSS format)

Tennessee: Haslam, legislature enact conservative agenda

http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_518_1974.aspx

An excerpt:

“Another bill would bar collective bargaining between teachers’ unions and school boards. Haslem didn’t initiate it, but endorsed it during its consideration. The bill has passed the Senate and should pass the House any day now. This proposal, says the Nashville observer, “has riled up the Democratic base,” which includes unions and the Tennessee Education Association. Supporting the measure are the Tennessee School Boards Association and the Tennessee County Commissioners Association.

“A poll taken in mid-February by Middle Tennessee State University (MTSU) showed that 54% believed the current tenure system “made it hard to get rid of bad teachers” to 29% who believed tenure “protects good teachers from being fired.” However, 41% opposed eliminating collective bargaining between school boards and teachers’ unions to 37% who favored the elimination proposal. (In general, Tennesseans are a pretty conservative bunch; 31% said they would vote for President Obama’s reelection to 48% who said they would vote for “his Republican opponent.”)”

According to a little-noticed finding from the February MTSU Poll, 38 percent of state residents agree that “Tennessee should amend its constitution to forbid the state from ever introducing a tax on personal income.” But 40 percent agree instead that “Tennessee should introduce a tax on personal income to lower sales taxes and eliminate taxes on groceries.” The remaining fifth of Tennesseans say they don’t know. Given the poll’s error margin, the 38 and 40 percent figures represent a statistical tie. (See: http://tinyurl.com/47v5u2t).

And that was no fluke. When the Spring 2009 MTSU Poll asked the same question, 46 percent of Tennesseans supported the income tax ban, 40 percent supported combining an income tax with cuts in the sales tax, and 14 percent were undecided. (See: http://tinyurl.com/3tm2pnu).

In both polls, furthermore, the order in which the options were presented made a significant difference, with the option presented last garnering more support, regardless of whether it was the constitutional income tax ban or the introduction of an income tax with sales tax cuts. That fluctuation provides even more evidence that Tennesseans are ambivalent about which option would be best.

That picture of Tennessee public opinion differs quite a bit from the one recently offered on WSMV by a legislator who predicted that the ban would draw 80 percent approval in a statewide referendum (See: http://www.wsmv.com/politics/27906371/detail.html).

Why the disparity?

When gauging public opinion, asking the right questions matters tremendously. The poll has repeatedly shown that Tennesseans express substantial opposition when asked solely whether they support or oppose an income tax. However, when Tennesseans are asked – more in line with actual income tax proposals in Tennessee – about accompanying the introduction of an income tax with a cut in the state’s sales taxes, opposition drops substantially. (See: http://tinyurl.com/3hdgv2k).

To be clear, Tennesseans are in no way pleading for an income tax or, for that matter, any other kind of tax. In the Spring 2011 poll, only about a quarter of Tennesseans expressed support for raising taxes as a way of dealing with the state’s budget situation. This may be the sentiment that some legislators are picking up on and misreading as opposition to an income tax in particular.

But there is little evidence that opposition to an income tax in Tennessee is as monolithic as some seem to think it is.

• Tenure viewed as making firing bad teachers hard, but no consensus on ending collective bargaining.
• More Tennesseans would vote for any Republican nominee in 2012 than would vote for candidate Obama.
• Tennesseans say illegal immigration a serious problem, Arizona-style immigration law “About right.”
• Top options for closing the state budget gap draw limited support at best.
• State residents split on increasing regulation of gun sales, banning high-capacity ammo clips.
• Support remains high for letting food stores sell wine.
• A plurality of Tennesseans favor repealing health law.
• Tennesseans generally support Muslims’ religious rights, and attitudes toward mosques hold steady despite controversy.
• President Obama’s job approval holding steady in Tennessee, but majority still disapproves.
• President Obama and Congressional Republicans still not doing enough to cooperate, Tennesseans say.
• More Tennesseans approve of new governor, Legislature than disapprove.
• Tennesseans say environment good, sufficiently protected, and secondary to economic growth.
• Economy remains top concern at state and national levels.
• Tea Party approval edges downward, membership remains low.

Downloads:
Press release
Detailed report and analysis
Exact question phrasing and sequence
Question-by-question results
Data file (SPSS format)

Across a range of questions in the latest MTSU Poll, including one about whether U.S. Muslims should have the same religious rights and liberties as other Americans, majorities of Tennesseans expressed tolerance toward Muslims.

But who would disagree?

On the particular question of religious rights and liberties for Muslims, two groups stand out as most likely to be opposed: Lesser-educated Tennesseans in general, and especially those who are also politically independent or Republican.

About one in four Tennesseans with nothing above a high school diploma disagreed with the idea of equal religious rights for Muslims. Disagreement was about half as common among the roughly two-thirds of Tennesseans with at least some education beyond high school. The proportions here get imprecise, because we’re talking about a pretty thin slice of the poll’s sample. But the results show that these relatively less educated Tennesseans are significantly more likely to disagree with the notion of equal religious rights for U.S. Muslims.

And among these lesser-educated Tennesseans, about a quarter of political independents and Republicans oppose equal rights for U.S. Muslims, compared to about half as many among Democrats. Again, estimating exact proportions gets difficult when only a subset of the poll’s sample is involved, but the general pattern is statistically significant.

It’s important to note that even among these two groups, strong majorities expressed support for the religious rights of U.S. Muslims. About two-thirds of Tennesseans with no more than a high school education expressed support for Muslims’ religious rights. And even among those who were politically independent or Republican, just under two-thirds indicated support.

It likely, then, that when Tennesseans heard or read this morning about U.S. Attorney Jerry Martin’s comments reminding a state court that the federal government has repeatedly recognized Islam as one of the world’s major religions deserving of First Amendment protection, most of them had more or less the same thought:

“Well, of course.”

• Tennesseans generally tolerant toward Muslims, but most oppose Park51 near “Ground Zero”
• Most Tennesseans say American Muslims don’t heighten risk of terrorism
• Haslam leads McWherter in governor’s race, draws majorities of tea partiers and former Wamp, Ramsey fans
• Tennesseans like Republicans over Dems in Congressional and state Legislative races, but many see no difference
• Bredesen closes out a popular governorship, but Legislature still not feelin’ the love
• President Obama’s job approval continues to erode in Tennessee
• Tennesseans see Washington as dysfunctional, blame both Congressional Republicans and Obama
• Belief in rumors about Obama’s birth and religion persist among Tennesseans
• Tea party movement approval, membership remain low in Tennessee
• Economic worries continue for most state residents
• Popularity of health care reform depends on perception of personal impact
• Tennesseans, especially Republican ones, highly protective of gun owners’ rights
• Tennesseans hold mixed views about wars in Afghanistan and Iraq

Downloads:
Press release
Detailed report and analysis
Exact question phrasing and sequence
Question-by-question results
Data file (SPSS format)

]]> http://mtsusurveygroup.org/2010/10/fall-2010-mtsu-poll-results/feed/ 0 http://mtsusurveygroup.org/2010/10/science-art-of-asking-questions-islamic-community-center-construction/ http://mtsusurveygroup.org/2010/10/science-art-of-asking-questions-islamic-community-center-construction/#comments Tue, 05 Oct 2010 15:15:15 +0000 Jason Reineke http://mtsusurveygroup.org/?p=336 In many ways polling is both a science and an art.  We use scientific methods and a body of knowledge built on a strong scientific foundation to design our questionnaires, sample the population of interest in such a way that the group of people we contact is representative of that population, and make estimates of how close our results likely are to what that population as a whole thinks about the issue (i.e. the confidence interval, or margin of error).   At the same time we have to make decisions on a case-by-case, or poll-by-poll, basis that deal with interpretation and meaning in the context of culturally, politically, and socially sensitive issues.  These decisions are most apparent when it comes to question wording.

Americans’ sentiments on Islam, especially the construction of Islamic centers in New York, California, and of course Tennessee, have been a focal point of media attention for a few months now.  Given the prominence of this issue around the country and in the state, we decided to include some questions about it on this season’s MTSU poll.  We did not make the decision lightly; the issue has clear and important social, political, and religious implications.  If the various demonstrations and media coverage that have taken place already are any indicators, people seem to have very strong, personal feelings about the issue.  For these reasons, we were careful to design our questions on the issue in such a way that 1) they represent the issue as accurately as possible, 2) they deal with the realities of the issue, not speculation about it, 3) they don’t encourage people to answer in one way or another, and 4) they give people the opportunity to provide a full range of responses.

In terms of accurate representation of the issue, our main challenge was to decide what to call these planned buildings.  The one in New York City was widely referred to in the media for quite some time as the “Ground Zero Mosque” due to its proximity to the site of the World Trade Center attacks on September 11, 2001.  However, the building is actually about two city blocks away from the World Trade Center site, and though plans include a prayer room they also include a theater, a swimming pool, a fitness center, and a food court among other things.  Thus, it’s not really at Ground Zero, and it’s not really, or at least not exclusively, a mosque.  For those two reasons, we decided against referring to the building as the “Ground Zero Mosque.”  Recently the project has been referenced in the media by the name of the building, at first Cordoba House but it has now been renamed as Park51.  The problem with using “Park51,” though, is that without some explanation many respondents might not recognize what we’re asking about based on the name of the building alone, but would be more likely to if they were provided with some context.  For this case, we ultimately decided to refer to the planned building as “a Muslim community center and place of worship in New York City, near the site of the former World Trade Center.”

Similarly, the planned building near Murfreesboro, Tennessee has been referenced as the “Murfreesboro Mosque.”  The appeal of alliteration aside, the structure is technically just outside of Murfreesboro, and is set to include a pool, gymnasium, and classrooms as well as a prayer and worship space.  In this case, we decided that the location of the planned building would be most clearly indicated to Tennesseans if we described the location as Murfreesboro, despite it being just outside of town.  So we ultimately decided to refer to this proposed building as “a Muslim community center and place of worship in Murfreesboro, Tennessee.”

We also wanted to make sure that, in addition to being accurate in our portrayal of the issue, that we kept our questions simple and dealt with the realities of the situation rather than speculative aspects of it.  For example, some of the debate on the issue has centered on how such buildings might be used by Islamic extremists, and what the true motivations of individuals and groups on either side of the issue might be.  We address peoples’ attitudes toward Islam, including their liking, fear, and tolerance elsewhere in the questionnaire, but for the questions about community center and place of worship construction we chose to stick with that issue alone, rather than attempting to deal with what might be the case, which would problematically complicate the questions.

It would be even worse to misrepresent the issue in such a way as to suggests that a particular opinion was sanctioned over another, and that could be another result of speculating in our questions about best or worst case scenarios for these buildings.  We work hard to make sure that our questions are clear, sensible, simple, focused on a single object (issue, person, thing, topic, etc.), and above all unbiased.  That’s especially important with topics that people are as sensitive about as this one.  Our goal is to measure public opinion, not manufacture it.

It’s also important to give people a reasonably full set of ways to respond to the issue.  We accomplished this in two ways.  First, rather than just asking one question about the issue (i.e. either about the building in New York or the building in Murfreesboro), we ask them three: one about the building in New York, one about the building in Murfreesboro, and one about a hypothetical “…Islamic community  center and place of worship near where you live…”  This gives our participants from across the state of Tennessee the opportunity to think about the issue of building Islamic community centers in a variety of geographic and associated contexts.  Second, we use a set of suggested responses called a Likert scale to give participants what we call an exhaustive and mutually exclusive set of answers to choose from.  The response scales include the options of “strongly support,” “support,” “neither support nor oppose,” “oppose,” and “strongly oppose.”  Participants can also say that they don’t know how they feel about the issue, or they can choose not to answer the question – we can’t force people to tell us what they think, after all!

So from all that consideration and work we get the following three questions.  We think they’re pretty good in terms of our most important standards:

“There has been news lately about plans for a Muslim community center and place of worship in New York City, near the site of the former World Trade Center. Do you yourself strongly support those plans, support them, oppose them, strongly oppose them, or neither support nor oppose those plans?”

“There has been news lately about plans for a Muslim community center and place of worship in Murfreesboro, Tennessee. Do you yourself strongly support those plans, support them, oppose them, strongly oppose them, or neither support nor oppose those plans?”

“If a Muslim group proposed building an Islamic community center and place of worship near where you live, would you strongly support such a building, support it, oppose it, strongly oppose it, or neither support nor oppose such a building?”

In the interest of transparency, we make our full questionnaire available to the public on our web site after each poll, so those who are interested in what else we asked can look for it there next week when we release the results of the fall 2010 MTSU poll.

Tennesseans’ opinions about Muslims, mosques and the relationship between religion and government will be among the topics explored in the next set of MTSU Poll results, due for release during the second week of October.

The release also will yield an early picture of how the race for Tennessee governor is shaping up and indicate which party – if either – Tennesseans would like to see in charge of the state Legislature and the U.S. Congress.

Updates on President Barack Obama’s approval rating, the extent of concern about the economy, attitudes toward the recent health care reform legislation, opinions about firearms regulation, and both the real and perceived power of the tea party movement in Tennessee will be included as well.

We’ve designed our questions about Muslims, mosques and church/state relations with the help of an expert who is doing similar work at the national level. We’ll probe how comfortable Tennesseans say they are with mosque construction near where they live; in Murfreesboro, where conflict over construction of a mosque has drawn national media coverage; and in Manhatten near the one-time site of the World Trade Center.

We’ll also describe how these and the other attitudes we measure vary among key demographic, political and social subgroups across the state.